How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Vaporwave
M4A1-S | Vaporwave drops from Gallery CaseGallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 50% 1 in 2
- Contract cost from
- $3460.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $3383.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -2.2% $-76.50 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $3460.00 and the outcome pool averages $3383.50, so it loses $76.50 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from Gallery CaseGallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 50% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Vaporwave specifically.
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
P250 | Epicenter
P250 | Epicenter
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
P250 | Epicenter
AK-47 | The Outsiders
AK-47 | The Outsiders
AK-47 | The Outsiders
P250 | Epicenter
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
AK-47 | The Outsiders3 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Gallery CaseGallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case draws uniformly from every Covert skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Vaporwave is one of 2 equally likely results. These are the other 1.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Vaporwaveyour target | 50% | $3895.00 |
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof | 50% | $2872.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Vaporwave’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Vaporwave’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Vaporwave is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $3895.00 | +$435.00 |
| Field-Tested | $4968.00 | +$1508.00 |
| Well-Worn | $5005.00 | +$1545.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $7712.00 | +$4252.00 |
| Factory New | $15881.00 | +$12421.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.