How to Trade Up to Glock-18 | Shinobu
Glock-18 | Shinobu drops from Fever CaseFever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, Fever Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $400.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $422.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +5.7% +$22.67 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $400.00 against an outcome pool averaging $422.67 — $22.67 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; Glock-18 | Shinobu itself is only 33.33% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Fever CaseFever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case or Fever Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Glock-18 | Shinobu specifically.
Nova | Rising Sun
P90 | Wave Breaker
Galil AR | Control
Nova | Rising Sun
P90 | Wave Breaker
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike
Galil AR | Control
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike
Nova | Rising Sun
P90 | Wave Breaker
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike
Galil AR | Control8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Fever CaseFever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case / Fever Case draws uniformly from every Classified skin in the pool, so Glock-18 | Shinobu is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Shinobuyour target | 33.33% | $438.00 |
| AK-47 | Searing Rage | 33.33% | $417.00 |
| UMP-45 | K.O. Factory | 33.33% | $413.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Glock-18 | Shinobu’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Glock-18 | Shinobu’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Glock-18 | Shinobu is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $438.00 | +$38.00 |
| Well-Worn | $455.00 | +$55.00 |
| Field-Tested | $479.00 | +$79.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $789.00 | +$389.00 |
| Factory New | $2185.00 | +$1785.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.