How to Trade Up to Five-SeveN | Nightshade
Five-SeveN | Nightshade drops from eSports 2013 Winter CaseeSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, eSports 2013 Winter Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $0.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $569.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +0% +$569.50 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $0.00 against an outcome pool averaging $569.50 — $569.50 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; Five-SeveN | Nightshade itself is only 16.67% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from eSports 2013 Winter CaseeSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case or eSports 2013 Winter Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Five-SeveN | Nightshade specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from eSports 2013 Winter CaseeSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case / eSports 2013 Winter Case draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Pistol skin in the pool, so Five-SeveN | Nightshade is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Blue Titanium | 16.67% | $2340.00 |
| P250 | Steel Disruption | 16.67% | $265.00 |
| G3SG1 | Azure Zebra | 16.67% | $228.00 |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil | 16.67% | $208.00 |
| Nova | Ghost Camo | 16.67% | $192.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Nightshadeyour target | 16.67% | $184.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Five-SeveN | Nightshade’s range of 0.00–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0700 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2200 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5300 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8300 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9500 |
“Not reachable” means Five-SeveN | Nightshade’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Five-SeveN | Nightshade is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $184.00 | +$184.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $361.00 | +$361.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $497.00 | +$497.00 |
| Well-Worn | $1151.00 | +$1151.00 |
| Factory New | $1998.00 | +$1998.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.