How to Trade Up to AWP | Dragon Lore
AWP | Dragon Lore drops from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 100% 1 in 1
- Contract cost from
- $2698180.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $478417.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -82.3% $-2219763.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred AWP | Dragon Lore costs $478417.00 outright, against $2698180.00 for a contract with a 100% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 100% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AWP | Dragon Lore specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Covert Sniper Rifle skin in the pool, so AWP | Dragon Lore is one of 1 equally likely results. These are the other 0.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Loreyour target | 100% | $478417.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AWP | Dragon Lore’s range of 0.00–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0500 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1571 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3786 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5929 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8214 |
“Not reachable” means AWP | Dragon Lore’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AWP | Dragon Lore is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $478417.00 | −$2219763.00 |
| Field-Tested | $650824.00 | −$2047356.00 |
| Well-Worn | $652380.00 | −$2045800.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $928326.00 | −$1769854.00 |
| Factory New | $1211332.00 | −$1486848.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.