How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Redline
AK-47 | Redline drops from Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseOperation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $1720.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1478.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -14% $-241.33 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $1720.00 and the outcome pool averages $1478.67, so it loses $241.33 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseOperation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case or Operation Phoenix Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Redline specifically.
FAMAS | Sergeant
SG 553 | Pulse
FAMAS | Sergeant
USP-S | Guardian
SG 553 | Pulse
SG 553 | Pulse
MAC-10 | Heat
FAMAS | Sergeant
MAC-10 | Heat
MAC-10 | Heat
USP-S | Guardian
MAC-10 | Heat4 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseOperation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case / Operation Phoenix Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Classified Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Redline is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Redlineyour target | 33.33% | $2430.00 |
| P90 | Trigon | 33.33% | $1037.00 |
| Nova | Antique | 33.33% | $969.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Redline’s range of 0.10–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1250 | 0.0417 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2750 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5250 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.7917 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Redline’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Redline is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $2430.00 | +$710.00 |
| Well-Worn | $2529.00 | +$809.00 |
| Field-Tested | $2955.00 | +$1235.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $14439.00 | +$12719.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.