How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Case Hardened
AK-47 | Case Hardened drops from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $5980.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $8051.17 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +34.6% +$2071.17 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $5980.00 against an outcome pool averaging $8051.17 — $2071.17 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; AK-47 | Case Hardened itself is only 16.67% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Case Hardened specifically.
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate
Desert Eagle | Heirloom
Desert Eagle | Heirloom
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit
Nova | Graphite
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate
Nova | Graphite
Desert Eagle | Heirloom12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Classified Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Case Hardened is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardenedyour target | 16.67% | $17473.00 |
| Desert Eagle | Hypnotic | 16.67% | $15720.00 |
| USP-S | Serum | 16.67% | $5397.00 |
| P90 | Cold Blooded | 16.67% | $5341.00 |
| P250 | Undertow | 16.67% | $2659.00 |
| CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now | 16.67% | $1717.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Case Hardened’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Case Hardened’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Case Hardened is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $17473.00 | +$11493.00 |
| Well-Worn | $17990.00 | +$12010.00 |
| Field-Tested | $22517.00 | +$16537.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $27184.00 | +$21204.00 |
| Factory New | $39804.00 | +$33824.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.