How to Trade Up to Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat drops from ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 50% 1 in 2
- Contract cost from
- $26250.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $4237.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -83.9% $-22012.50 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat costs $4356.00 outright, against $26250.00 for a contract with a 50% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 50% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat is one of 2 equally likely results. These are the other 1.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threatyour target | 50% | $4356.00 |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat | 50% | $4119.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat’s range of 0.06–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0068 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.0676 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2770 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4797 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7635 |
“Not reachable” means Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $4356.00 | −$21894.00 |
| Well-Worn | $4974.00 | −$21276.00 |
| Field-Tested | $5312.00 | −$20938.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $14592.00 | −$11658.00 |
| Factory New | $133562.00 | +$107312.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.