How to Trade Up to Nova | Graphite
Nova | Graphite drops from CS:GO Weapon Case 2, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $24.40 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $10.72 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -56.1% $-13.68 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Factory New Nova | Graphite costs $7.04 outright, against $24.40 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from CS:GO Weapon Case 2. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Graphite specifically.
P250 | Hive
P250 | Hive
FAMAS | Hexane
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
FAMAS | Hexane
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger
P250 | Hive
FAMAS | Hexane
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web4 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon Case 2 draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Nova | Graphite is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Hypnotic | 25% | $13.73 |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin | 25% | $12.09 |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened | 25% | $10.01 |
| Nova | Graphiteyour target | 25% | $7.04 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Graphite’s range of 0.00–0.12. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.2917 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.0950 | 0.7917 |
| Field-Tested | — | not reachable |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Graphite’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Graphite is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $7.04 | −$17.36 |
| Minimal Wear | $9.49 | −$14.91 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.