How to Trade Up to MP9 | Hypnotic
MP9 | Hypnotic drops from CS:GO Weapon Case 2CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, CS:GO Weapon Case 2, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $2550.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1344.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -47.3% $-1205.50 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Factory New MP9 | Hypnotic costs $1833.00 outright, against $2550.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from CS:GO Weapon Case 2CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2 or CS:GO Weapon Case 2. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP9 | Hypnotic specifically.
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
FAMAS | Hexane
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
P250 | Hive
P250 | Hive
FAMAS | Hexane
FAMAS | Hexane
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger
FAMAS | Hexane4 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon Case 2CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 / CS:GO Weapon Case 2 draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so MP9 | Hypnotic is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Hypnoticyour target | 25% | $1833.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin | 25% | $1504.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened | 25% | $1036.00 |
| Nova | Graphite | 25% | $1005.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP9 | Hypnotic’s range of 0.00–0.08. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.4375 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.0750 | 0.9375 |
| Field-Tested | — | not reachable |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means MP9 | Hypnotic’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP9 | Hypnotic is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $1833.00 | −$717.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $2308.00 | −$242.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.