How to Trade Up to AWP | Lightning Strike
AWP | Lightning Strike drops from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $17170.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $21748.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +26.7% +$4578.00 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $17170.00 against an outcome pool averaging $21748.00 — $4578.00 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; AWP | Lightning Strike itself is only 33.33% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AWP | Lightning Strike specifically.
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now
P250 | Undertow
P250 | Undertow
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now
P90 | Cold Blooded
USP-S | Serum
P250 | Undertow
USP-S | Serum
P90 | Cold Blooded
USP-S | Serum7 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Covert Sniper Rifle skin in the pool, so AWP | Lightning Strike is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Lightning Strikeyour target | 33.33% | $48210.00 |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water | 33.33% | $9216.00 |
| CZ75-Auto | Victoria | 33.33% | $7818.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AWP | Lightning Strike’s range of 0.00–0.08. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.4375 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.0750 | 0.9375 |
| Field-Tested | — | not reachable |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means AWP | Lightning Strike’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AWP | Lightning Strike is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $48210.00 | +$31040.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $60285.00 | +$43115.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.