How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Metal Flowers
UMP-45 | Metal Flowers drops from Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 14.29% 1 in 7
- Contract cost from
- $0.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $396.43 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +0% +$396.43 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $0.00 against an outcome pool averaging $396.43 — $396.43 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; UMP-45 | Metal Flowers itself is only 14.29% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 14.29% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Metal Flowers specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Metal Flowers is one of 7 equally likely results. These are the other 6.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowersyour target | 14.29% | $456.00 |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water | 14.29% | $455.00 |
| MAC-10 | Aloha | 14.29% | $425.00 |
| Tec-9 | Cut Out | 14.29% | $395.00 |
| M4A1-S | Briefing | 14.29% | $361.00 |
| FAMAS | Macabre | 14.29% | $356.00 |
| USP-S | Blueprint | 14.29% | $327.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Metal Flowers’s range of 0.00–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0500 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1571 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3786 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5929 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8214 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Metal Flowers’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Metal Flowers is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $456.00 | +$456.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $458.00 | +$458.00 |
| Well-Worn | $636.00 | +$636.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $783.00 | +$783.00 |
| Factory New | $862.00 | +$862.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.