How to Trade Up to MP7 | Skulls
MP7 | Skulls drops from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 7.69% 1 in 13
- Contract cost from
- $0.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $878.31 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +0% +$878.31 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $0.00 against an outcome pool averaging $878.31 — $878.31 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; MP7 | Skulls itself is only 7.69% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 7.69% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP7 | Skulls specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade SMG skin in the pool, so MP7 | Skulls is one of 13 equally likely results. These are the other 12.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Blue Titanium | 7.69% | $4469.00 |
| AUG | Wings | 7.69% | $1263.00 |
| MP7 | Skullsyour target | 7.69% | $1217.00 |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet | 7.69% | $1176.00 |
| M4A1-S | Blood Tiger | 7.69% | $511.00 |
| USP-S | Stainless | 7.69% | $486.00 |
| CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web | 7.69% | $437.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Panther | 7.69% | $374.00 |
| Glock-18 | Blue Fissure | 7.69% | $345.00 |
| P2000 | Red FragCam | 7.69% | $341.00 |
| P250 | Hive | 7.69% | $280.00 |
| FAMAS | Hexane | 7.69% | $264.00 |
| SCAR-20 | Crimson Web | 7.69% | $255.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP7 | Skulls’s range of 0.10–0.26. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1250 | 0.1562 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2050 | 0.6563 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means MP7 | Skulls’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP7 | Skulls is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1217.00 | +$1217.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1423.00 | +$1423.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.