How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Bone Pile
UMP-45 | Bone Pile drops from Operation Bravo CaseOperation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, Operation Bravo Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $0.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $521.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +0% +$521.50 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $0.00 against an outcome pool averaging $521.50 — $521.50 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; UMP-45 | Bone Pile itself is only 16.67% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Operation Bravo CaseOperation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case or Operation Bravo Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Bone Pile specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Bravo CaseOperation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case / Operation Bravo Case draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Bone Pile is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SG 553 | Wave Spray | 16.67% | $731.00 |
| Galil AR | Shattered | 16.67% | $511.00 |
| G3SG1 | Demeter | 16.67% | $502.00 |
| Nova | Tempest | 16.67% | $493.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Black Limba | 16.67% | $479.00 |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pileyour target | 16.67% | $413.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Bone Pile’s range of 0.06–0.34. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0179 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1786 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2450 | 0.6607 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Bone Pile’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Bone Pile is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $413.00 | +$413.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $498.00 | +$498.00 |
| Factory New | $6590.00 | +$6590.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.