How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Watchdog
XM1014 | Watchdog drops from Operation Riptide CaseOperation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, Operation Riptide Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 14.29% 1 in 7
- Contract cost from
- $0.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $77.71 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +0% +$77.71 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $0.00 against an outcome pool averaging $77.71 — $77.71 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; XM1014 | Watchdog itself is only 14.29% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Operation Riptide CaseOperation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case or Operation Riptide Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 14.29% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Watchdog specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Riptide CaseOperation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case / Operation Riptide Case draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Watchdog is one of 7 equally likely results. These are the other 6.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| XM1014 | Watchdogyour target | 14.29% | $122.00 |
| USP-S | Black Lotus | 14.29% | $74.00 |
| AUG | Plague | 14.29% | $72.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Tread | 14.29% | $71.00 |
| MP7 | Guerrilla | 14.29% | $71.00 |
| PP-Bizon | Lumen | 14.29% | $67.00 |
| G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs | 14.29% | $67.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Watchdog’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Watchdog’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Watchdog is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $122.00 | +$122.00 |
| Well-Worn | $123.00 | +$123.00 |
| Field-Tested | $172.00 | +$172.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $275.00 | +$275.00 |
| Factory New | $817.00 | +$817.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.