How to Trade Up to Five-SeveN | Hot Shot
Five-SeveN | Hot Shot drops from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package, London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $0.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $229.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +0% +$229.33 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $0.00 against an outcome pool averaging $229.33 — $229.33 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; Five-SeveN | Hot Shot itself is only 16.67% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package or London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Five-SeveN | Hot Shot specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package / London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade Pistol skin in the pool, so Five-SeveN | Hot Shot is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SG 553 | Fallout Warning | 16.67% | $351.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Hot Shotyour target | 16.67% | $273.00 |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste | 16.67% | $219.00 |
| AUG | Radiation Hazard | 16.67% | $189.00 |
| P250 | Contamination | 16.67% | $174.00 |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green | 16.67% | $170.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Five-SeveN | Hot Shot’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Five-SeveN | Hot Shot’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Five-SeveN | Hot Shot is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $273.00 | +$273.00 |
| Well-Worn | $292.00 | +$292.00 |
| Field-Tested | $493.00 | +$493.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $925.00 | +$925.00 |
| Factory New | $5753.00 | +$5753.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.