CS2 Dead Hand Collection Trade-Up Contract Guide

How Trade-Up Contracts Work in CS2

The Trade-Up Contract has been a core mechanic in Counter-Strike since 2014. The premise is simple: you sacrifice 10 weapon skins of the same rarity tier and receive 1 weapon skin of the next rarity tier up. No keys required, no fees beyond the cost of the input skins themselves.

The critical rules to understand before trading up in the Dead Hand Collection:

• All 10 inputs must be the same rarity. You cannot mix Mil-Spec and Restricted skins in a single contract
• The output comes from the same collection as the inputs. If all 10 inputs are Dead Hand Collection skins, the output will be a Dead Hand Collection skin of the next rarity tier
• You can mix collections of the same rarity if Valve has pooled those collections together — this is only useful when mixing with other currently pooled collections at the same tier
• The output float value is determined by your inputs' average float — this is the key strategic lever covered in detail below
• StatTrak inputs only produce StatTrak outputs — you cannot mix StatTrak and non-StatTrak skins in a single contract

Trade-Up Contracts are accessed through the CS2 inventory interface. Select 10 skins of the same rarity, confirm the contract, and the output is delivered immediately to your inventory.

Dead Hand Collection Rarity Tiers

Understanding the complete item list at each rarity tier is essential for planning trade-ups. Here is every weapon skin in the Dead Hand Collection organized by rarity:

Mil-Spec (Blue) — 7 Skins

These are the most common items in the Dead Hand Collection and the cheapest entry point for trade-up contracts. The Mil-Spec tier forms the base of the trade-up pyramid.

Restricted (Purple) — 5 Skins

These are the target outputs for Mil-Spec trade-ups and the inputs for Restricted-to-Classified contracts. Restricted skins occupy the middle tier where value begins to accumulate meaningfully.

Classified (Pink) — 3 Skins

Three Classified skins occupy the second-highest rarity tier. These are the outputs for Restricted trade-ups and the critical inputs for the highest-stakes contract in the collection: Classified to Covert.

Covert (Red) — 2 Skins

The two Covert skins are the ultimate prize of the Dead Hand Collection. They can be obtained through the Dead Hand Terminal, purchased on the open market after they enter circulation, or through a Classified-to-Covert trade-up contract. The 50/50 odds between them make this the most high-stakes gamble in the current CS2 economy.

Optimal Trade-Up Paths

The Dead Hand Collection supports three distinct trade-up tiers. Each has a different cost profile, risk level, and expected return.

Tier 1: Mil-Spec to Restricted (Blue to Purple)

Input: 10 Dead Hand Mil-Spec skins
Output: 1 random Dead Hand Restricted skin — 1 of 5 possible, ~20% each

This is the lowest-risk trade-up in the collection. The Dead Hand Restricted skins — Iron Chrysanthemum, Autumn Koi, Storm Gate, Whispering Bamboo, and Death Wind — all carry meaningfully higher market prices than the Mil-Spec inputs, particularly for top-condition copies. The AUG Iron Chrysanthemum and Galil AR Autumn Koi tend to attract higher demand due to their visual designs. The SSG 08 Death Wind is worth tracking — SSG sniper skins have a dedicated buyer base.

When it makes sense: When the total cost of 10 Mil-Spec skins is less than the average sale price of the cheapest Restricted output. Early in the collection lifecycle, Mil-Spec prices are often depressed due to high supply from Terminal drops, making this the most reliably positive trade-up path.

Tier 2: Restricted to Classified (Purple to Pink)

Input: 10 Dead Hand Restricted skins
Output: 1 random Dead Hand Classified skin — 1 of 3 possible, approximately 33% each

This is the middle-tier contract with moderate cost and meaningful upside. The three Classified outputs all carry significant market value, particularly the AK-47 Crane Flight which benefits from the AK-47's status as the most popular primary weapon in CS2. The AK-47 Crane Flight will typically trade above the other two Classified options due to weapon popularity alone.

Expected value calculation: Sum the prices of the three Classified outputs, divide by 3 to get the average, and compare to your 10 Restricted input cost. If the average output value exceeds the input cost, this trade-up is in positive expected value territory. Track the P250 Kintsugi and P90 Deathgaze prices carefully — if all three Classified skins converge in price, the EV math becomes straightforward.

Tier 3: Classified to Covert — The Big Gamble (Pink to Red)

Input: 10 Dead Hand Classified skins
Output: 1 of 2 Dead Hand Covert skins — AWP Queen's Gambit or Glock-18 Fully Tuned, 50% each

This is the highest-stakes contract in the Dead Hand Collection. With only two Covert items in the collection, each one has a 50% chance of being the output. The AWP Queen's Gambit is generally valued higher because the AWP is a high-profile weapon commanding stronger prices across all wear conditions. However, the Glock-18 Fully Tuned is not a bad outcome — Glock Covert skins hold value well due to the weapon's constant use in pistol rounds.

Expected value check: Calculate (0.5 × AWP Queen's Gambit current price) + (0.5 × Glock-18 Fully Tuned current price) and compare against your total input cost of 10 Classified skins. If the expected value exceeds the input cost, the trade-up is theoretically positive. However, variance is binary and extreme — plan only if you have capital for multiple runs or are comfortable with the binary outcome.

StatTrak Trade-Ups

StatTrak trade-ups follow all the same rules as regular trade-ups with one additional constraint: all 10 input skins must be StatTrak for the output to be StatTrak. You cannot mix StatTrak and non-StatTrak skins in a single contract.

StatTrak Price Premiums by Tier

The challenge with StatTrak trade-ups is that input costs are 10–30% higher across all 10 slots. For the Classified-to-Covert StatTrak trade-up, the math typically works in your favor because the Covert tier StatTrak premium (30–80%) comfortably exceeds the input premium. The risk is receiving the Glock-18 StatTrak Fully Tuned — still valuable, but carrying a smaller absolute premium over its non-StatTrak counterpart than the AWP equivalent.

Float Value in Trade-Ups

Understanding float value math is essential for anyone performing trade-up contracts beyond the lowest tier. The output float of a trade-up contract is not random — it is mathematically determined by your inputs.

The Trade-Up Float Formula

Output float is calculated as:

Output Float = (Average Input Float) × (Max Float − Min Float) + Min Float

Where Min Float and Max Float are the target output skin's float range limits. This means:

• The lower your average input float, the lower your output float will be within the output skin's possible range
• You cannot guarantee which skin you receive when multiple outputs are possible — but you can influence what float the output skin will have
• If targeting Factory New output (float below 0.07), you need the average of your 10 inputs to be low enough that the formula produces a sub-0.07 result

Practical Float Strategy

For the Classified-to-Covert trade-up:

• Targeting Factory New output: Use 10 Classified inputs with floats averaging below approximately 0.05–0.06. Low-float Classified inputs cost more, but a Factory New AWP Queen's Gambit commands a substantial premium over Field-Tested
• Accepting Field-Tested output: Use mid-range Classified inputs at standard pricing. A Field-Tested AWP Queen's Gambit is still highly valuable and the cheaper inputs dramatically improve your return-on-investment if you receive the AWP
• Mixed float strategy: You can intentionally mix very low-float and high-float inputs to hit a specific average. For example, combining a few 0.01 float copies with 0.20+ float copies to land near a 0.09–0.12 average for guaranteed Minimal Wear output

Cost Analysis

The following table reflects approximate early-market pricing for Dead Hand Collection items. Prices shift significantly in the weeks after launch as supply stabilizes from Terminal drops.

Always check current prices on SteamAnalyst before committing to any contract. The figures above are estimates based on early-market projections and will shift as supply stabilizes over time.

Tips & Strategies

Source Inputs Across Multiple Platforms

Do not limit yourself to the Steam Market when sourcing trade-up inputs. Third-party platforms like Skinport, CSFloat, and DMarket often carry Dead Hand Collection skins at 10–20% below Steam Market prices. Since you need 10 inputs per contract, a 15% per-skin saving translates to significant total cost reduction. Compare prices across all platforms on SteamAnalyst before buying inputs.

Track the AK-47 Crane Flight Price Relative to Other Classified Skins

For the Restricted-to-Classified trade-up, the AK-47 Crane Flight is the highest-value output. Monitor its price relative to the P250 Kintsugi and P90 Deathgaze. When Crane Flight trades significantly above the others, the expected value of the contract increases. When all three Classified skins trade at similar prices, the expected value calculation is straightforward and each output is roughly equivalent.

Time Your Contracts Around Market Conditions

The best time to perform lower-tier trade-ups is in the first 2–4 weeks after the Dead Hand Collection launch, when Terminal drops are flooding the market with Mil-Spec skins at suppressed prices. The best time to perform Classified-to-Covert trade-ups is when the Classified skins have stabilized at lower prices while Covert demand remains strong — typically 4–8 weeks into the collection lifecycle.

Float Management for the Covert Trade-Up

If you are targeting the Classified-to-Covert trade-up and want Minimal Wear or Factory New output, plan your Classified input floats carefully. Buy low-float Classified inputs only when the float premium is justified by the improvement in expected output float quality. For FT-range output, standard float Classified skins are usually sufficient and dramatically cheaper than FN copies.

Is It Worth It?

Whether Dead Hand Collection trade-ups represent good value depends on timing, market conditions, and your risk tolerance. Here is an honest evaluation of each tier:

Mil-Spec to Restricted

Generally favorable in the first few weeks after launch. Mil-Spec skins flood the market as Terminal drops enter the economy, often pushing prices to near-floor levels. If you can source 10 Mil-Spec Dead Hand skins at combined low cost, the Restricted outputs — which are rarer by definition — will likely average higher value. This trade-up benefits most from timing: execute it when Mil-Spec prices are at their lowest.

Restricted to Classified

Neutral to moderately favorable, highly dependent on the AK-47 Crane Flight price. The Crane Flight is the most desirable Classified output. If you receive it, the trade-up was almost certainly profitable. The other two Classified outputs are still strong, but their lower demand tier means lower average returns. Run this contract only when the math supports positive expected value — not out of excitement over the AK-47 alone.

Classified to Covert

High variance, context-dependent. When the expected value (50% AWP price + 50% Glock price) exceeds your input cost, the trade-up has positive theoretical expected value. In practice, with a binary outcome and high capital commitment, variance dominates at small sample sizes. Execute this trade-up only with capital you can afford to lose to the downside outcome, or run it at sufficient scale to let the expected value materialize. A single run of this contract is essentially a coin flip for an expensive prize.

Compare Dead Hand Collection Prices Across 13+ Marketplaces
Check real-time prices for all Dead Hand items and calculate trade-up expected value accurately on SteamAnalyst. We track Buff163, Skinport, CSFloat, DMarket, Steam Market, and more.

Related Dead Hand Guides

• Dead Hand Collection — Complete Overview
• How to Get the Dead Hand Terminal
• Best CS2 Gloves to Pair With Your Skins (2026)
• CS2 Float Value Explained
• Dead Hand Collection — Prices & Items